ARDL Modeling of Long-Run and Short-Run Determinants of Export Performance in Nigeria: A Test for National Development

Abstract

This article seeks to estimate long-run and short-run implications of domestic macroeconomic variables on the performance of exports in Nigeria between 1981 and 2015. Central Bank of Nigeria published data were used for analysis. The bounds test and auto-distributed regressive lag (ARDL) modeling technique was adopted to estimate both short-run and long-run corollary of the explanatory variables on export performance in Nigeria. Results of the long-run behaviour of the explanatory variables on the responsive variable (export performance) were insignificant. However, results from ECM (short-run dynamics) were quite beguiling because of the observed inconsistencies which are indication of contradictory policy framework characterizing the Nigerian economic scenery. Therefore, it is recommended that conscious efforts be devoted to the crafting of long term plans and policy formulation and implementation for the attainment of long term and enduring stabilization and export growth.